Power To The Punter
US Sports
Bounce-Back
Bounce back theory exploits the likelihood that a team will perform well after coming off of a really poor game. This theory works well across a number of different sports.
NFL - a team coming off a Monday night loss will be more likely to perform well in their next game. A team coming off of a shut out will be more likely to perform much better in their next game.
NBA - after a basketball team has a poor scoring performance, i.e. less than 70 points, they become more focused offensively and generally perform much better in their next game. A basketball team losing by a large margin will bounce back in their next game.
MLB - teams coming of a shut out loss perform consistently better in their next game.
Human nature dictate that players want to elevate their game after a bad performance. Additionally the betting publics lack of confidence in the team sees that the spread on the next game is considerably increased.
Rest Days
NFL - each team will have an extra week off, referred to as a bye, during the regular season. They will generally be matched up with an opponent that has played the previous week. With the extra week to recover from injuries and to study their opponents, teams playing off of a bye generally perform much better.
NBA - many basketball teams will be forced to have played on consecutive days which is not easy for a team considering each player generally plays about 20-40 minutes per night. If this team is going up against a rested side the tired team will generally perform poorly against the spread.
MLB - teams playing on consecutive days (against a different opponent) will do better if they won their previous game than if they did not. Momentum plays a huge part in baseball and a team that is winning will want to keep playing while a team that is losing will prefer the days of rest.
Revenge
NFL - Since teams only play 16 regular season games per year, in-season revenge only applies to teams playing division rivals and division rivals play each other twice. On rare occasions a team will face a team for a third time if playing a division rival in the playoffs. Football teams play much better with revenge because they are more focused and a lot more intent on learning their mistakes in the previous game.
NBA - teams can play each other as many as 4 times per season if within the same conference. The strongest of all in-season revenges would be what is called the "triple revenge" which refers to a team that has lost three straight times to it's opponent. Double revenge refers to a team that has lost twice in a row in the same season. Just as in football, teams with revenge pay closer attention to the details and will perform much better. Since the public looks back at the previous matchup where one team trounced another, then the tendency will be to generally give that team value with regards to the spread for both the NBA and NFL.
MLB - revenge is not really applicable to baseball handicapping except maybe for the last game of a series when one team is looking for a sweep. Unlike basketball and football, teams looking for a sweep in baseball will generally get it.
Contrary
The concept of contrary systems is that the weight of money on the favoured side gives value to their opponents. If the majority of the betting public are backing the favourite then the bookmakers reduce the price on that favourite and increase the price of the opponent. Of course this does not work all of the time but there are definitely instances where this does happen.
NFL - Monday night games traditionally take the most money and are the most watched of all the games during the week. The increased weight of money on the Monday night games has historically shaded the line against the public and favors the contrarian team.
NBA - betting the contrarian position in basketball usually involves combining other systems such as the bounce back or even the revenge angle. For example, the public might have seen Team A beat Team B by over 20 points in their previous matchup and bet Team A heavily. Team B will not only have value in the spread but will also be more motivated from the loss to perform well.
MLB - the public loves favourites and it is no different in baseball. Underdogs have great advantages when their offenses are playing well and/or they are on a winning streak.
Game 1 Of A Series
Factor 1 - The favourites of the first game of a series are overvalued by about 7.5 points as compared to underdogs.
Factor 2 - Teams perform 5 points better in Game 1 if they are heading into it off a win as opposed to a loss.
Factor 3 - A team is 2 points worse off if heading into the game off of two straight losses as compared to any given loss. The team is 2 points stronger if heading into the game off of 2 straight wins as compared to a single win. This means that the result of the game prior to game 1 of a series is worth 5 points to the spread. The second game before is worth another 2 points to the spread.
MLB Systems
Game 2 Of A Series
Factor 1 - If the team is heading into the second game of a series off of a win, they are generally worth about 2.5 points LESS than if they were to going into the game off a loss. So a loss is better in this case. In fact, if our team is off of two consecutive wins, they are worth 6 points LESS than if they were off of two consecutive losses. This is due to the fact that teams in this situation are more "desperate".
Factor 2 - If a team scored double digit runs then they are worth about 5 points on the spread than if they did not. Basically the team off of a loss has the advantage but not if their opponent scored double digit runs against them in Game 1. If a team gives up that many runs then chances are their entire bullpen got used up and a slight advantage then goes to the other team. It's also obvious that if a team is scoring that many runs then chances are that they have the momentum on their side to score more.
Game 3 Of A Series
Factor - If a team is off of a shut out then they are about 5 points overvalued. Basically this just means that for a team to be shut out in Game 2, the sportsbooks should adjust the spread 5 points against this team. Teams off of a shutout loss are generally good bets which is why this particular angle has gone unnoticed for a long time. But game 3 generally represents the last game in which two teams will face off and if a team was shut out then they will generally find it hard to turn things around the day before they are expected to travel and play another team.
Game 4 Of A Series
Factor 1 - Interleague teams don't play 4 game series.
Factor 2 - The road team in the fourth game of a series has a 6 point advantage over the home team in the game. This is because as the series wears on, the home field advantage goes to inconsequential in the fourth game. This is due to the effects of travel on the road team does not exist. The familiarity with the fans and ball park no longer rests solely on the home team. Also the road team generally takes the game more seriously because they always want to end a road series with a win to take some momentum to their next series.
Factor 3 - Teams that were shut out in game 2 do poorly in game 3 but do incredibly well in the fourth game of a series.
Factor 4 - Teams that score double digit runs in game 3 are also very strong bets in the fourth game of a series because by the time you get to the fourth game of a series, status quo dominates.